Hosted by Dave Cantin Group in Partnership with Roland Berger
Dave Cantin Group recently hosted an exclusive virtual session featuring expert insights from global consultancy Roland Berger, focused on how tariff policy and trade uncertainty are reshaping the automotive retail landscape.
This timely session reinforced many of the strategic themes outlined in DCG’s January 2025 Market Outlook Report, including the role of political volatility, global competition, and the shifting relationship between OEMs and dealers. In an environment where policy can shift overnight, DCG continues to lead with intelligence and perspective dealers need to adapt and thrive.
Key Insights from the Session:
Tariffs require both short-term agility and long-term strategy
Dealerships must prepare for evolving cost structures, supply chain pressures, and shifting consumer expectations. Strategic adjustments to inventory mix, brand portfolios, and revenue models are essential for staying competitive.
Consumer confidence is declining
In April 2025, consumer sentiment dropped 11 percent, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Affordability is top of mind, driving demand toward more value-priced new and used vehicles. As DCG’s Market Outlook Report cited, customer sentiment is ruling the market until the political and regulatory environment becomes clearer.
Tariff-driven price increases are likely
The cost burden from tariffs will vary based on sourcing and OEM pricing strategies. Rising prices, coupled with inventory imbalances in the used vehicle market, are expected to pressure both dealers and consumers.
Service and parts loyalty is undergoing a fundamental shift
Even before the current administration, there was a growing openness toward the independent aftermarket (IAM) for both service and parts, a trend observed globally, with the notable exception of China (see Roland Berger latest Aftermarket Pulse edition, B2B and B2C trends in the automotive aftermarket | Roland Berger). In the U.S., 56 percent of vehicle owners use independent shops for service and 11 percent use quick lube providers across all vehicle age categories, a shift largely driven by rising price sensitivity. Only 42 percent of owners say they would choose OEM parts when equivalent aftermarket alternatives are available.
This behavioral shift reinforces DCG’s “Peak Truck” finding from the January Market Outlook Report, which identified a broader move toward affordability and total cost-of-ownership optimization. As tariffs further increase the cost of OEM parts and inflation pressures persist, consumer reliance on IAM solutions is expected to accelerate. Dealers must account for this growing trend when planning parts sourcing strategies, service offerings, and customer retention programs.
OEM strategies are diverging and reshaping the dealer landscape
As manufacturers place big strategic bets to win market share, DCG expects clear winners and losers to emerge. This growing divergence will disrupt the status quo, requiring dealers to reassess their brand portfolio. Dealers must evaluate not only the profitability of the brands they carry, but also the long-term viability of each manufacturer’s retail strategy and develop a future-proof sustainable business model, tailored to customer segments in their market area. Consumer behavior trends should be closely monitored, along with their understanding of “Made in the USA” to identify messaging opportunities.
Action Steps for Dealers:
Short-term priorities:
• Realign sales strategies across rooftops and vehicle segments
• Provide transparent total cost of ownership comparisons and feature-led selling strategies
• Reevaluate sourcing strategies for parts, balancing OEM and aftermarket options
Mid- to long-term strategies:
• Drive operational efficiency and cost discipline
• Reevaluate brand portfolios in light of diverging OEM strategies
• Explore new revenue streams beyond traditional retail, including financial services and adjacent categories
• Monitor global and policy developments closely to stay ahead of regulatory and trade-related disruptions
This session is part of Dave Cantin Group’s broader commitment to delivering timely, actionable insights to dealership leaders. From market outlooks to deal advisory, DCG remains a trusted partner in navigating change and building long-term value.
For more information:
On the tariff landscape:
Zachary Kaplan, Roland Berger Zachary.caplan@rolandberger.com
Shantanu Verma, Roland Berger Shantanu.verma@rolandberger.com
On what dealers can do:
Elena Yakushkina, Roland Berger
elena.yakushkina@rolandberger.com
Neury Freitas, Roland Berger neury.freitas@rolandberger.com
Or contact Dave Cantin Group’s COO, Brian Traugott at brian@davecantingroup.com